Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Portman Road plays host to Ipswich versus Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Ipswich have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Bournemouth (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Bournemouth are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Ipswich — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ipswich 64% and Bournemouth 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Bournemouth 65%). Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Ipswich recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.01 xG and Bournemouth 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 0.582 / defence 1.122 | Bournemouth attack 1.116 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.396. Ipswich's attack rating of 0.582 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Ipswich's last 14 games and Bournemouth's last 52.
Result probabilities: Ipswich 21% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 54%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 4.86 | Draw 3.86 | Bournemouth 1.87. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 50% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 21% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ipswich 1.01 / Bournemouth 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 0.582 / def 1.122 | Bournemouth attack 1.116 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Bournemouth xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ipswich vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Ipswich vs Bournemouth kick off?
Ipswich vs Bournemouth kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Ipswich 1 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Ipswich vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Bournemouth part of?
Ipswich vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 21% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ipswich and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ipswich vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ipswich's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (1.12x) against Ipswich's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from Ipswich's last 14 games and Bournemouth's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
21%
4.86
26%
3.86
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.76
1.75
Bournemouth xG
4.86
21%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
4%
27.89
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ipswich vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.75 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich's recent record stands at 22W 18D 12L from 52 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 21L across 52 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Ipswich against 1.33 for Bournemouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 13W 10D 3L from their last 26 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.44 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 62%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Ipswich (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ipswich
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Ipswich vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Ipswich and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 22W 18D 12L in their last 52 games (1.62 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Bournemouth away?
Ipswich's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.88 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Ipswich and Bournemouth, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ipswich
0
Draws
2
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Ipswich vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Bournemouth?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ipswich have won 1, Bournemouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Ipswich, 69% for Bournemouth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Ipswich and 73% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ipswich vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ipswich and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Ipswich's games and 69% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ipswich and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ipswich's matches and 73% of Bournemouth's.
Do Ipswich and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Ipswich's recent matches and 81% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Ipswich 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Ipswich 1-2 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.01 xG and Bournemouth 1.75 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 0.58 / defence 1.12 against Bournemouth attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 21% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 54%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 56%, Bournemouth 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.62 PPG, Bournemouth 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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