Fulham vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 May 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.10 PPG versus Everton's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fulham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Fulham have won 2, Everton 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Everton trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.47 xG and Everton 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.017 / defence 1.121 | Everton attack 0.961 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Fulham games / 40 Everton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 41% | Draw 25% | Everton 34%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Everton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 41% | Draw 25% | Everton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Fulham 1.47 / Everton 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.017 / def 1.121 | Everton attack 0.961 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Fulham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Everton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Everton kick off?
Fulham vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Everton part of?
Fulham vs Everton is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 41% chance of winning, Everton a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fulham and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
Record (8 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 3 | Everton 3W.
What form are Fulham and Everton in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.02x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.95
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.77
1.30
Everton xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Fulham and 1.30 for Everton, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 7D 18L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton's form line: 14W 11D 15L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.30 PPG, Everton on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (11W 2D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fulham are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Everton in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Everton away?
Fulham's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.75 PPG; Everton away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Fulham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Everton in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fulham and Everton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Fulham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
3
Draws
3
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Everton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fulham 1-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fulham) and 35% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Fulham's recent games and 35% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Everton tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Everton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.