Everton 0-0 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Newcastle travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Newcastle — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Newcastle's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Everton's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Everton, 3 for Newcastle and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Newcastle 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 48% | Newcastle 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.61 xG and Newcastle 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.948 / defence 1.118 | Newcastle attack 1.018 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.478. Data: 44 Everton games / 44 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Newcastle 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Newcastle 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Everton 1.61 / Newcastle 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.948 / def 1.118 | Newcastle attack 1.018 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Newcastle xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Everton 0 - 0 Newcastle.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 36% chance of winning, Newcastle a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 1 | Newcastle 3W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Newcastle (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.95) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.88
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Everton xG
Total xG
3.29
1.68
Newcastle xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
7%
15.07
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Everton and 1.68 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Everton have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 10D 20L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Newcastle's form line: 21W 8D 15L from 44 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Newcastle are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Newcastle's season.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 2.11 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Newcastle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 21W 8D 15L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.41 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 36%, Newcastle 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 73% (Newcastle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Everton's recent matches and 68% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Everton's matches and 73% of Newcastle's.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 7, as Everton and Newcastle drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.61 xG and Newcastle 1.68 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Newcastle landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Newcastle attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 39%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 48%, Newcastle 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Newcastle's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.