Everton 2-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Crystal Palace at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Goodison Park, Everton have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Crystal Palace — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Everton have won 3, Crystal Palace 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crystal Palace trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Crystal Palace 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 46% | Crystal Palace 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.29 xG and Crystal Palace 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.918 / defence 1.161 | Crystal Palace attack 0.900 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.445. Data: 43 Everton games / 43 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 30% | Draw 31% | Crystal Palace 39%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Crystal Palace 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Everton dominate the H2H record, yet Crystal Palace are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Crystal Palace 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 30% | Draw 31% | Crystal Palace 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Everton 1.29 / Crystal Palace 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.918 / def 1.161 | Crystal Palace attack 0.900 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Crystal Palace xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Everton vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Everton 2 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Everton vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Crystal Palace part of?
Everton vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 30% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Everton and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Record (6 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 2 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.92x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
30%
3.36
31%
3.25
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Everton xG
Total xG
2.80
1.51
Crystal Palace xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Everton and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Everton and 1.51 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Everton have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 13W 10D 20L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crystal Palace's form line: 13W 13D 17L from 43 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.14 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.42 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crystal Palace in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Crystal Palace
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Crystal Palace away?
Everton's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.33 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Everton or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Everton
3
Draws
1
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 6, Crystal Palace have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Crystal Palace?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 33%, Crystal Palace 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Everton) and 48% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Everton's recent matches and 67% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Everton's recent games and 48% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.29 xG and Crystal Palace 1.51 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against Crystal Palace attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 30% | Draw 31% | Crystal Palace 39%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 46%, Crystal Palace 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.14 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.