Everton 1-0 Chelsea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chelsea at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Chelsea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton and Chelsea meet at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Everton's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Goodison Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Chelsea's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Chelsea away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Chelsea arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Everton, 0 for Chelsea and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Chelsea — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Chelsea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 53% | Chelsea 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 0.74 xG and Chelsea 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.826 / defence 0.979 | Chelsea attack 1.314 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.322. Chelsea have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Everton games / 33 Chelsea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 16% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 60%. Fair-value odds: Everton 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Chelsea 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Chelsea (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chelsea at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Chelsea 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Chelsea | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 16% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton 0.74 / Chelsea 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.826 / def 0.979 | Chelsea attack 1.314 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Chelsea xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Chelsea kick off?
Everton vs Chelsea kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton 1 - 0 Chelsea.
Where is Everton vs Chelsea being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Chelsea part of?
Everton vs Chelsea is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 16% chance of winning, Chelsea a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton and Chelsea will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
Record (1 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 1 | Chelsea 0W.
What form are Everton and Chelsea in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Chelsea (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.83x the league average against Chelsea's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chelsea's attack (1.31x) against Everton's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
16%
6.24
24%
4.23
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Everton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.70
Chelsea xG
6.24
16%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
3%
34.15
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Everton and 1.70 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Chelsea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton's recent record stands at 8W 5D 19L from 32 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 5L across 32 games — 1.97 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chelsea by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Everton have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chelsea's away record stands at 10W 4D 2L across 16 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Chelsea are on 2.03 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Chelsea in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Chelsea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Chelsea in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 8W 5D 19L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while Chelsea have gone 18W 9D 5L in their last 32 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Chelsea away?
Chelsea's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.44 PPG; Chelsea away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Everton or Chelsea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chelsea in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chelsea won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chelsea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
3
Draws
4
Chelsea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Chelsea?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Chelsea have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Chelsea last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Everton 3-0 Chelsea.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Chelsea?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 44%, Chelsea 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton) and 56% (Chelsea).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Chelsea in 50%; Everton have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Chelsea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Chelsea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Everton's recent matches and 44% of Chelsea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Chelsea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton's recent games and 56% of Chelsea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Chelsea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Chelsea 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 0.74 xG and Chelsea 1.70 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chelsea landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Chelsea attack 1.31 / defence 0.83, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 16% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 60%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 53%, Chelsea 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Chelsea's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Everton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.