Everton 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Burnley at Goodison Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Premier League matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Everton have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.33 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Burnley in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (3 games): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Burnley trading profile (3 games): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Everton 67% and Burnley 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 67% | Burnley 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.66 xG and Burnley 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.135 / defence 1.139 | Burnley attack 0.729 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.023. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Everton games / 3 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 57% | Draw 24% | Burnley 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Burnley 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Everton (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Everton 67% | Burnley 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 57% | Draw 24% | Burnley 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Everton 1.66 / Burnley 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.135 / def 1.139 | Burnley attack 0.729 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Everton (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Burnley kick off?
Everton vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Burnley?
Everton 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Everton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Burnley part of?
Everton vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 57% chance of winning, Burnley a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Everton and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and Burnley in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W. Burnley (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.11
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Everton xG
Total xG
2.51
0.85
Burnley xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
4%
27.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Everton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Everton and 0.85 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Everton have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Everton are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Burnley in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Everton or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burnley in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Everton's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Everton
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Burnley?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Everton at 67%, Burnley at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Everton) and 33% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Everton's games and 67% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Everton's recent games and 33% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Everton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Burnley 3-1 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.66 xG and Burnley 0.85 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 57% | Draw 24% | Burnley 19%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 67%, Burnley 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Burnley shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.