Everton 0-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Everton face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton host Arsenal at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Hill Dickinson Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Everton have won 2, Arsenal 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Everton in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Arsenal in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 41% versus Arsenal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 37% | Arsenal 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.18 xG and Arsenal 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.979 / defence 1.010 | Arsenal attack 1.049 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.298. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Everton games / 54 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 31% | Draw 28% | Arsenal 41%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Arsenal 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Arsenal 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 31% | Draw 28% | Arsenal 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton 1.18 / Arsenal 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.979 / def 1.010 | Arsenal attack 1.049 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Arsenal xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Arsenal kick off?
Everton vs Arsenal kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Everton 0 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Everton vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Arsenal part of?
Everton vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 31% chance of winning, Arsenal a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
Record (8 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 2 | Arsenal 4W.
What form are Everton and Arsenal in?
Everton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Arsenal (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
31%
3.20
28%
3.57
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Everton xG
Total xG
2.55
1.38
Arsenal xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Everton and 1.38 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton's recent record stands at 18W 18D 18L from 54 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 6L across 54 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton have managed 9W 11D 7L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 13W 10D 4L across 27 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.83 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 18W 18D 18L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 31W 17D 6L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.41 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Everton or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Arsenal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Arsenal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Arsenal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
2
Draws
6
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Arsenal have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 44%, Arsenal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton) and 37% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Arsenal in 33%; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Everton's recent matches and 56% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton's recent games and 37% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Arsenal tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Arsenal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Everton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Everton 0-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.18 xG and Arsenal 1.38 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Everton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Arsenal attack 1.05 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 31% | Draw 28% | Arsenal 41%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Arsenal 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.