Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crystal Palace at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Crystal Palace have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Everton have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Crystal Palace.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Crystal Palace 1–2 Everton — a Everton win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Everton have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 58% versus Everton 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 50% | Everton 42%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Crystal Palace recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.09 xG and Everton 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.850 / defence 1.079 | Everton attack 0.630 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.510. Everton's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 62 games and Everton's last 62.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 32% | Everton 32%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.83 | Draw 3.10 | Everton 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Crystal Palace's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 32% | Everton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Crystal Palace 1.09 / Everton 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.850 / def 1.079 | Everton attack 0.630 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Everton xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Everton.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 35% chance of winning, Everton a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.85) and Everton's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 62 games and Everton's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.10
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.11
1.03
Everton xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.03 for Everton, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 19D 23L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Everton's form line: 19W 18D 25L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.27 PPG, Everton on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 9D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.05 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Everton in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Everton
Blended
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 20W 19D 23L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Everton have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.30 PPG; Everton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Everton in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won Everton 3-0 Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
7
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 0, Everton have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 60%, Everton 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Crystal Palace) and 40% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 40% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crystal Palace and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 40% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 63% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Crystal Palace 1-2 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.09 xG and Everton 1.03 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Everton attack 0.63 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 35% | Draw 32% | Everton 32%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Everton 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.27 PPG, Everton 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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