Burnley 1-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Ham at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
West Ham make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
West Ham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. West Ham are 0.90 PPG clear of Burnley in recent Premier League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Burnley 0W, West Ham 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus West Ham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 60% | West Ham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.22 xG and West Ham 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.635 / defence 1.581 | West Ham attack 1.106 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.360. Burnley's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Burnley games / 50 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 19% | West Ham 63%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | West Ham 1.59. The model has a clear lean to West Ham (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | West Ham 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 18% | Draw 19% | West Ham 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 64% | xG Burnley 1.22 / West Ham 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.635 / def 1.581 | West Ham attack 1.106 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: West Ham (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.38
West Ham xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs West Ham kick off?
Burnley vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs West Ham?
Burnley 1 - 2 West Ham.
Where is Burnley vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs West Ham part of?
Burnley vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 18% chance of winning, West Ham a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Burnley and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Ham?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 2 | West Ham 0W.
What form are Burnley and West Ham in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. West Ham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burnley's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (1.11x) against Burnley's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 2.38.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
18%
5.49
19%
5.36
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.60
2.38
West Ham xG
5.49
18%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
9%
10.79
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
2%
59.24
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Burnley and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Burnley and 2.38 for West Ham, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs West Ham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 50 games, going 27W 11D 12L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.14 PPG from 50 outings (16W 9D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of West Ham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 15W 3D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (5W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.26 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and West Ham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 games (1.84 PPG), while West Ham have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or West Ham away?
Burnley's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.92 PPG; West Ham away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Burnley or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, West Ham in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: West Ham have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
3
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and West Ham?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, West Ham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Burnley 0-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 44%, West Ham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Burnley and 52% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; West Ham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burnley's recent matches and 52% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Burnley's matches and 52% of West Ham's.
Prediction vindicated as West Ham edge out Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.22 xG and West Ham 2.38 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.64 / defence 1.58 against West Ham attack 1.11 / defence 1.17, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 18% | Draw 19% | West Ham 63%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 60%, West Ham 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.