Brentford 1-3 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Brentford at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brentford vs Everton encounter.

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Analysis

Everton make the trip to Gtech Community Stadium to face Brentford in Premier League (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Brentford (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Brentford's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Everton's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Brentford. A 0.90 PPG lead over Everton (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Brentford's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) — Brentford have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Everton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Brentford, 1 for Everton and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2023, ended Brentford 0–1 Everton — a Everton win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Brentford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 54% versus Everton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 46% | Everton 42%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Brentford recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.91 xG and Everton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 1.026 / defence 0.977 | Everton attack 0.944 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.355. Everton's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brentford's projected output up. Data: built from Brentford's last 43 games and Everton's last 43.

Result probabilities: Brentford 53% | Draw 22% | Everton 25%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 1.90 | Draw 4.48 | Everton 4.00. Brentford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brentford if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brentford's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brentford 80% (last 10 home games) | Everton 60% (last 10 away games).

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