Bournemouth 1-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
West Ham travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Monday 16 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bournemouth stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bournemouth have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Ham — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Ham away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Bournemouth have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bournemouth's games and 60% of West Ham's (from Bournemouth's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for West Ham and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Feb 2024, ended Bournemouth 1–1 West Ham — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
West Ham trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and West Ham 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bournemouth 66% | West Ham 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while West Ham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.77 xG and West Ham 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.980 / defence 0.749 | West Ham attack 0.889 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.446. Bournemouth have a tight defence (rating 0.749), which is pulling West Ham's projected output down. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 53 games and West Ham's last 53.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.82 | Draw 3.83 | West Ham 5.27. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bournemouth's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 60% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 16 December 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bournemouth 1.77 / West Ham 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.980 / def 0.749 | West Ham attack 0.889 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.96
West Ham xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs West Ham FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs West Ham kick off?
Bournemouth vs West Ham kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 16 December 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Bournemouth vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs West Ham part of?
Bournemouth vs West Ham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 55% chance of winning, West Ham a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bournemouth and West Ham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 53 games and West Ham's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.83
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.73
0.96
West Ham xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
3%
30.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs West Ham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.96 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs West Ham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
West Ham, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 21L across 53 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.36 PPG, West Ham on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 11W 7D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Ham's away record stands at 9W 4D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.51 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; West Ham in 68%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
West Ham
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs West Ham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs West Ham Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and West Ham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while West Ham have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or West Ham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.54 PPG; West Ham away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 6 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won Bournemouth 0-4 West Ham.
Bournemouth's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
6
Draws
2
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs West Ham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and West Ham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 0, West Ham have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and West Ham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and West Ham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 54%, West Ham 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Bournemouth and 73% for West Ham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs West Ham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and West Ham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bournemouth's games and 69% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bournemouth and West Ham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bournemouth's matches and 73% of West Ham's.
Do Bournemouth and West Ham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 85% of West Ham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Bournemouth and West Ham drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.77 xG and West Ham 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.75 against West Ham attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 55% | Draw 26% | West Ham 19%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, West Ham 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
West Ham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.36 PPG, West Ham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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