Bournemouth 0-1 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Manchester City (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bournemouth face Manchester City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host Manchester City at Vitality Stadium in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Bournemouth — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Manchester City stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Manchester City's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Manchester City's 2.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Bournemouth's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Manchester City have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Bournemouth. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Bournemouth 1–6 Manchester City — a Manchester City win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Manchester City have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Manchester City in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 47% versus Manchester City 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 56% | Manchester City 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Manchester City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.19 xG and Manchester City 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.819 / defence 1.009 | Manchester City attack 1.248 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.573. Manchester City have an above-average attack rating of 1.248, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 62 games and Manchester City's last 63.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 22% | Draw 23% | Manchester City 55%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 4.62 | Draw 4.26 | Manchester City 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.19 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Manchester City at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Manchester City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Manchester City 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 22% | Draw 23% | Manchester City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Bournemouth 1.19 / Manchester City 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.819 / def 1.009 | Manchester City attack 1.248 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.573 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Manchester City xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Manchester City FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Manchester City kick off?
Bournemouth vs Manchester City kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Bournemouth 0 - 1 Manchester City.
Where is Bournemouth vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Manchester City part of?
Bournemouth vs Manchester City is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 22% chance of winning, Manchester City a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bournemouth and Manchester City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.82x the league average against Manchester City's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Manchester City's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 62 games and Manchester City's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
22%
4.62
23%
4.26
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.17
1.98
Manchester City xG
4.62
22%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
14%
7.24
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
3%
33.47
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.98 for Manchester City, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 13D 31L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Manchester City sit at 2.29 PPG from 62 outings (44W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Manchester City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bournemouth's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Manchester City have taken 1.97 points per game from their last 30 away games (18W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 2.42 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Manchester City in 61%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Manchester City
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Manchester City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Manchester City
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Manchester City Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 18W 13D 31L in their last 62 games (1.08 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 44W 10D 8L in their last 62 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.17 PPG; Manchester City away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Manchester City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Nov 2023, when Manchester City won Manchester City 6-1 Bournemouth.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Manchester City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
1
Draws
7
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Manchester City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Manchester City?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 1, Manchester City have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Manchester City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Manchester City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 43%, Manchester City 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bournemouth) and 63% (Manchester City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Manchester City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Manchester City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 60% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Manchester City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bournemouth's matches and 63% of Manchester City's.
Do Bournemouth and Manchester City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 67% of Manchester City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Manchester City edge out Bournemouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Bournemouth 0-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.19 xG and Manchester City 1.98 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Manchester City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Manchester City attack 1.25 / defence 0.86, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 22% | Draw 23% | Manchester City 55%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 56%, Manchester City 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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