Bournemouth 0-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host Crystal Palace at Vitality Stadium in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bournemouth at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crystal Palace stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bournemouth's games and 80% of Crystal Palace's (from Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Crystal Palace's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bournemouth, 2 for Crystal Palace and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2024, ended Bournemouth 1–0 Crystal Palace — a Bournemouth win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bournemouth 62% and Crystal Palace 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 66% | Crystal Palace 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Crystal Palace have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.37 xG and Crystal Palace 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.958 / defence 0.750 | Crystal Palace attack 1.001 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.518. Bournemouth have a tight defence (rating 0.750), which is pulling Crystal Palace's projected output down. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 55 games and Crystal Palace's last 55.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 40% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 29%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.53 | Draw 3.15 | Crystal Palace 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, matchday 18 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 40% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bournemouth 1.37 / Crystal Palace 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.958 / def 0.750 | Crystal Palace attack 1.001 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Crystal Palace xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Bournemouth 0 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace part of?
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace is a Premier League fixture (matchday 18) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 40% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bournemouth and Crystal Palace will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.96x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 55 games and Crystal Palace's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
40%
2.53
32%
3.15
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.50
1.14
Crystal Palace xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.14 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 13D 21L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Crystal Palace's form line: 16W 17D 22L from 55 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.38 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 7W 9D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.36 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Crystal Palace in 60%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 21W 13D 21L in their last 55 games (1.38 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Crystal Palace away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.52 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2026, when Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bournemouth
3
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 3, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Crystal Palace last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: Bournemouth 3-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 56%, Crystal Palace 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Bournemouth) and 52% (Crystal Palace).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Crystal Palace matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bournemouth's games and 67% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bournemouth and Crystal Palace matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Bournemouth's recent games and 52% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Crystal Palace matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 63% of Crystal Palace's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bournemouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Bournemouth and Crystal Palace drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.37 xG and Crystal Palace 1.14 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Crystal Palace landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.96 / defence 0.75 against Crystal Palace attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 40% | Draw 32% | Crystal Palace 29%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 66%, Crystal Palace 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.38 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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