Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aston Villa face Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Aston Villa welcome Bournemouth to Villa Park in Premier League (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Aston Villa — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Aston Villa at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Aston Villa) versus 1.50 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Aston Villa's games and 70% of Bournemouth's (from Aston Villa's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Aston Villa, 1 for Bournemouth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Aston Villa 2–2 Bournemouth — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aston Villa 59% versus Bournemouth 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aston Villa 59% | Bournemouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 2.03 xG and Bournemouth 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.120 / defence 1.112 | Bournemouth attack 0.977 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.525. Data: built from Aston Villa's last 71 games and Bournemouth's last 70.
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 46% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 31%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 2.16 | Draw 4.46 | Bournemouth 3.18. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.03 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aston Villa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Aston Villa's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aston Villa 60% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 46% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Aston Villa 2.03 / Bournemouth 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.120 / def 1.112 | Bournemouth attack 0.977 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Bournemouth xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kick off?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Aston Villa 3 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth part of?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 46% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Aston Villa and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aston Villa vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.12) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aston Villa's last 71 games and Bournemouth's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
46%
2.16
22%
4.46
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
3.69
1.66
Bournemouth xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.66 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Aston Villa have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 37W 13D 20L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 22W 15D 33L from 70 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bournemouth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Aston Villa have posted 2.06 PPG from their last 34 home games (22W 4D 8L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 10W 5D 19L from their last 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aston Villa are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.20 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
Aston Villa (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aston Villa
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Aston Villa and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 37W 13D 20L in their last 70 games (1.77 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 22W 15D 33L in their last 70 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Bournemouth away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.06 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won Aston Villa 4-0 Bournemouth.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
3
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Aston Villa have won 4, Bournemouth have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aston Villa 59%, Bournemouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Aston Villa and 62% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aston Villa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bournemouth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aston Villa and Bournemouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 50% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aston Villa and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Aston Villa's matches and 62% of Bournemouth's.
Do Aston Villa and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 76% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aston Villa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Bournemouth 3-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 2.03 xG and Bournemouth 1.66 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aston Villa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.12 / defence 1.11 against Bournemouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 46% | Draw 22% | Bournemouth 31%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 59%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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