Arsenal 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Arsenal at 72% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Everton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Arsenal host Everton at Emirates Stadium in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Arsenal — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Arsenal at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Arsenal are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Everton away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arsenal at 1.80 PPG versus Everton's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

Arsenal hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Everton and 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Arsenal 2–1 Everton — a Arsenal win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Arsenal and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Arsenal trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Everton trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 44% versus Everton 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 56% | Everton 44%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Arsenal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.29 xG and Everton 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.266 / defence 0.770 | Everton attack 0.644 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.401. Arsenal carry an above-average attack rating of 1.266 — their 2.29 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Everton's attack rating of 0.644 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Arsenal have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Everton's projected output down. Data: built from Arsenal's last 53 games and Everton's last 52.

Result probabilities: Arsenal 72% | Draw 19% | Everton 9%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.38 | Draw 5.27 | Everton 11.55. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (72%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Arsenal 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Arsenal's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arsenal 50% (last 10 home games) | Everton 40% (last 10 away games).

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