York vs Crewe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates York at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this York vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 31 as York welcome Crewe to York Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, York have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Community Stadium, York have gone 4W 1D 0L this season (5 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — York are significantly better at York Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crewe — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York 1.60 PPG, Crewe 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for York, 0 for Crewe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
York in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York 70% and Crewe 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (York 50% | Crewe 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York 1.31 xG and Crewe 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York attack 1.335 / defence 1.031 | Crewe attack 0.908 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. York carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Crewe's defence strength of 0.725 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 York games / 57 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York 43% | Draw 32% | Crewe 25%. Fair-value odds: York 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Crewe 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates York as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: York 60% | Crewe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: York Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York 43% | Draw 32% | Crewe 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG York 1.31 / Crewe 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: York attack 1.335 / def 1.031 | Crewe attack 0.908 / def 0.725 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: York (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
York xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Crewe xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York vs Crewe kick off?
York vs Crewe is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at York Community Stadium.
Where is York vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at York Community Stadium.
What competition is York vs Crewe part of?
York vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win York vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives York a 43% chance of winning, Crewe a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making York the favourite.
Will both teams score in York vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both York and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will York vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between York and Crewe?
Record (1 meetings): York 0W | Draws 1 | Crewe 0W.
What form are York and Crewe in?
York (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Crewe (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates York's attack at 1.33x the league average against Crewe's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus York's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.10
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
York xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
Crewe xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are York and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for York and 0.95 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for York vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
York's recent record stands at 4W 4D 2L from 10 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for York is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 0L across 10 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: York on 1.60 PPG, Crewe on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, York have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — York are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crewe's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
York are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.40 scored and 0.90 conceded. York's scoring rate against Crewe's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: York have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Crewe in 70%.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York and Crewe in coming into this match?
York have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Crewe have gone 4W 6D 0L in their last 10 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York at home or Crewe away?
York's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York at home: 2.50 PPG; Crewe away: 1.50 PPG.
Have York or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
York have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Crewe in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
York
1
Draws
0
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York and Crewe?
From 1 meetings on record, York have won 0, Crewe have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did York and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Crewe 1-1 York.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York 50%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (York) and 0% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: York keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Crewe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York's recent matches and 50% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of York's recent games and 0% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York and Crewe tend to score early?
York have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Crewe in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.