Walsall 1-3 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 37%, yet in-form Walsall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Walsall vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Walsall and Harrogate Town meet at Banks's Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Banks's Stadium, Walsall have gone 3W 2D 2L this season (7 games, 1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Harrogate Town have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Walsall. A 0.60 PPG lead over Harrogate Town (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Walsall 67% and Harrogate Town 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 53% | Harrogate Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.46 xG and Harrogate Town 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.070 / defence 1.334 | Harrogate Town attack 0.978 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.179. Harrogate Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Walsall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Walsall games / 15 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 34% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 37%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Harrogate Town 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Harrogate Town at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Walsall (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 86% | Harrogate Town 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Banks's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 34% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Walsall 1.46 / Harrogate Town 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.070 / def 1.334 | Harrogate Town attack 0.978 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Harrogate Town xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Banks's Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Walsall 1 - 3 Harrogate Town.
Where is Walsall vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Banks's Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Harrogate Town part of?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 34% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Walsall and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 1.07x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.98x) against Walsall's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
34%
2.96
29%
3.46
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Walsall xG
Total xG
3.00
1.54
Harrogate Town xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Walsall and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Walsall and 1.54 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Walsall's recent record stands at 5W 5D 5L from 15 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 4L across 15 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Walsall against 1.53 for Harrogate Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.80 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Harrogate Town in 67%.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Harrogate Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.57 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Harrogate Town won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Walsall
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Walsall have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Walsall 0-2 Harrogate Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Walsall, 57% for Harrogate Town — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Walsall and 57% for Harrogate Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Harrogate Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Walsall's games and 57% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Walsall vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Walsall's matches and 57% of Harrogate Town's.
Do Walsall and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Harrogate Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Walsall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Walsall 1-3 at Banks's Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.46 xG and Harrogate Town 1.54 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Harrogate Town outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.07 / defence 1.33 against Harrogate Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.30, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 34% | Draw 29% | Harrogate Town 37%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 53%, Harrogate Town 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.33 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.