Tranmere 0-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Tranmere take on Sutton Utd.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tranmere and Sutton Utd meet at Prenton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Tranmere's overall League Two record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Tranmere, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prenton Park, Tranmere have gone 5W 0D 2L this season (7 games, 2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prenton Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sutton Utd have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Sutton Utd have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Tranmere against 1.80 for Sutton Utd. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Tranmere half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Tranmere 13% | Sutton Utd 53%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tranmere 13% | Sutton Utd 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tranmere 1.09 xG and Sutton Utd 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tranmere attack 0.895 / defence 0.958 | Sutton Utd attack 0.972 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.179. Data: 15 Tranmere games / 15 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tranmere 32% | Draw 35% | Sutton Utd 33%. Fair-value odds: Tranmere 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Sutton Utd 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Tranmere 14% | Sutton Utd 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tranmere vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prenton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tranmere 32% | Draw 35% | Sutton Utd 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Tranmere 1.09 / Sutton Utd 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Tranmere attack 0.895 / def 0.958 | Sutton Utd attack 0.972 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Tranmere xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sutton Utd xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tranmere vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Tranmere vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Prenton Park.
What was the final score in Tranmere vs Sutton Utd?
Tranmere 0 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Tranmere vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at Prenton Park.
What competition is Tranmere vs Sutton Utd part of?
Tranmere vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Tranmere vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Tranmere a 32% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Tranmere vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tranmere and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Tranmere vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tranmere and Sutton Utd in?
Tranmere (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tranmere's attack rating (0.90) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.97x) against Tranmere's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
35%
2.88
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Tranmere xG
Total xG
2.19
1.10
Sutton Utd xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tranmere vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Tranmere and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Tranmere and 1.10 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Tranmere vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tranmere's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Tranmere is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 6L across 15 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Tranmere against 1.53 for Sutton Utd. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tranmere have managed 5W 0D 2L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Tranmere are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tranmere come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tranmere are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.53 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tranmere have seen both teams score in 13% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tranmere
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tranmere and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Tranmere have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 7W 2D 6L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tranmere at home or Sutton Utd away?
Tranmere's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tranmere at home: 2.14 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Tranmere or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tranmere have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tranmere have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Tranmere
3
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tranmere and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Tranmere have won 2, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tranmere and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Tranmere 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Tranmere and Sutton Utd?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tranmere tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sutton Utd see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (Tranmere) and 43% (Sutton Utd) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Tranmere and 29% for Sutton Utd.
On the defensive side: Tranmere keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sutton Utd in 43%; Tranmere have failed to score in 29% of games; Sutton Utd in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tranmere home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tranmere play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Tranmere's recent matches and 43% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tranmere vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Tranmere's recent games and 29% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tranmere and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Tranmere have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sutton Utd edge out Tranmere 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Tranmere 0-1 at Prenton Park, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tranmere 1.09 xG and Sutton Utd 1.10 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tranmere fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tranmere attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Sutton Utd attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tranmere 32% | Draw 35% | Sutton Utd 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sutton Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tranmere 13%, Sutton Utd 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tranmere's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 13% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tranmere 1.47 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.