Sutton Utd 1-2 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Sutton Utd take on Oldham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VBS Community Stadium plays host to Sutton Utd versus Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sutton Utd have collected 0.67 PPG across 3 League Two outings this season: 0W 2D 1L. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sutton Utd have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oldham (all games): 0W 0D 4L across 4 League Two outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Oldham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Sutton Utd's 0.67 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Oldham's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Sutton Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Oldham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sutton Utd 67% and Oldham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 33% | Oldham 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.08 xG and Oldham 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 0.950 / defence 1.150 | Oldham attack 0.713 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 0.926 / away 1.088. Oldham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Sutton Utd's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Sutton Utd games / 4 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 36% | Draw 39% | Oldham 26%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 2.78 | Draw 2.56 | Oldham 3.85. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sutton Utd 67% | Oldham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 36% | Draw 39% | Oldham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Sutton Utd 1.08 / Oldham 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 0.950 / def 1.150 | Oldham attack 0.713 / def 1.230 | league avg home 0.926 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Oldham xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Oldham kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Oldham?
Sutton Utd 1 - 2 Oldham.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Oldham part of?
Sutton Utd vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 36% chance of winning, Oldham a 26% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sutton Utd and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Oldham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sutton Utd and Oldham in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D. Oldham (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sutton Utd's attack at 0.95x the league average against Oldham's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (0.71x) against Sutton Utd's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.81
39%
2.57
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
1.97
0.89
Oldham xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.89 for Oldham, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sutton Utd's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sutton Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oldham, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Oldham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sutton Utd by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oldham heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Sutton Utd are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sutton Utd have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Oldham in 67%.
Last 3 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Early Season
Oldham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Oldham in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Oldham have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Sutton Utd or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Oldham in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sutton Utd
0
Draws
1
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 1, Oldham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2022, when Oldham 1-3 Sutton Utd.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sutton Utd see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sutton Utd, 67% for Oldham — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sutton Utd) and 67% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sutton Utd have failed to score in 33% of games; Oldham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Oldham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sutton Utd's games and 67% of Oldham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sutton Utd vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 67% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Oldham tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Oldham in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oldham defy the odds to beat Sutton Utd 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Sutton Utd 1-2 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.08 xG and Oldham 0.89 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oldham outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Oldham attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 36% | Draw 39% | Oldham 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 33%, Oldham 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Oldham's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 0.67 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Oldham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sutton Utd shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oldham scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.