Sutton Utd 5-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sutton Utd vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sutton Utd host Notts County at VBS Community Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sutton Utd haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at VBS Community Stadium, Sutton Utd have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.40 xG and Notts County 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 0.934 / defence 0.979 | Notts County attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.087. Data: 46 Sutton Utd games / 0 Notts County games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 47% | Draw 29% | Notts County 23%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Notts County 4.35. Sutton Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sutton Utd as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 47% | Draw 29% | Notts County 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sutton Utd 1.40 / Notts County 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 0.934 / def 0.979 | Notts County attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Notts County xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Notts County kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Notts County?
Sutton Utd 5 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Notts County part of?
Sutton Utd vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 47% chance of winning, Notts County a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sutton Utd and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Notts County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sutton Utd and Notts County in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sutton Utd (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sutton Utd's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Sutton Utd's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.40
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.30
0.91
Notts County xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.91 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Pre-Season
Notts County
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sutton Utd and Notts County runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sutton Utd
0
Draws
0
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Notts County?
From 2 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 2, Notts County have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Notts County 3-4 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Notts County?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Sutton Utd run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Notts County 5-1 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.40 xG and Notts County 0.91 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sutton Utd beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Notts County attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 47% | Draw 29% | Notts County 23%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.