Sutton Utd 0-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bradford at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sutton Utd vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VBS Community Stadium plays host to Sutton Utd versus Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sutton Utd (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's home record at VBS Community Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bradford are 1.10 PPG clear of Sutton Utd in recent League Two fixtures (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sutton Utd have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bradford in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sutton Utd lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Bradford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sutton Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 49% versus Bradford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 46% | Bradford 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.05 xG and Bradford 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.012 / defence 1.025 | Bradford attack 1.139 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. Data: 63 Sutton Utd games / 63 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 29% | Bradford 40%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Bradford 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Sutton Utd 60% | Bradford 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 29% | Bradford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Sutton Utd 1.05 / Bradford 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.012 / def 1.025 | Bradford attack 1.139 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Bradford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Bradford xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Bradford kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Bradford?
Sutton Utd 0 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Bradford part of?
Sutton Utd vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 31% chance of winning, Bradford a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sutton Utd and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): Sutton Utd 0W | Draws 1 | Bradford 1W.
What form are Sutton Utd and Bradford in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Bradford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sutton Utd's attack rating (1.01) and Bradford's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (1.14x) against Sutton Utd's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.44
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.26
1.22
Bradford xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 1.22 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sutton Utd come into this having played 63 games, going 27W 14D 22L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.40 PPG from 63 outings (22W 22D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Sutton Utd against 1.40 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sutton Utd's home form reads 18W 7D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.48 points per game from 31 outings (13W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.21 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Bradford in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 games (1.51 PPG), while Bradford have gone 22W 22D 19L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Bradford away?
Sutton Utd's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 1.97 PPG; Bradford away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bradford in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bradford won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sutton Utd have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sutton Utd
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 1, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Bradford 1-0 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Bradford see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 52%, Bradford 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sutton Utd) and 45% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bradford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sutton Utd's recent matches and 48% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sutton Utd vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Sutton Utd's recent games and 45% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sutton Utd and Bradford tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bradford in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sutton Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Sutton Utd 0-2 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.05 xG and Bradford 1.22 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sutton Utd fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Bradford attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 31% | Draw 29% | Bradford 40%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 46%, Bradford 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sutton Utd 1.51 PPG, Bradford 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.