Stockport County 8-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Sutton Utd encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Stockport County host Sutton Utd at Edgeley Park in League Two (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Stockport County — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Stockport County's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Sutton Utd have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Sutton Utd away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Sutton Utd and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2023, ended Stockport County 1–0 Sutton Utd — a Stockport County win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 48% versus Sutton Utd 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 41% | Sutton Utd 47%). Note also that Sutton Utd surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.16 xG and Sutton Utd 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.062 / defence 0.684 | Sutton Utd attack 0.866 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.256. Sutton Utd's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Stockport County have a tight defence (rating 0.684), which is pulling Sutton Utd's projected output down. Data: built from Stockport County's last 67 games and Sutton Utd's last 66.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 69% | Draw 19% | Sutton Utd 11%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.44 | Draw 5.14 | Sutton Utd 9.07. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Sutton Utd's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stockport County 30% (last 10 home games) | Sutton Utd 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights