Stockport County 2-0 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 18 as Stockport County welcome Colchester to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 League Two matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 3.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Edgeley Park this season.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Colchester have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stockport County, 0 for Colchester and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Colchester in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 49% versus Colchester 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 43% | Colchester 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.03 xG and Colchester 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.181 / defence 0.814 | Colchester attack 0.933 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.285. Data: 63 Stockport County games / 63 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 62% | Draw 21% | Colchester 17%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Colchester 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 40% | Colchester 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 62% | Draw 21% | Colchester 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Stockport County 2.03 / Colchester 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.181 / def 0.814 | Colchester attack 0.933 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Colchester xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Colchester kick off?
Stockport County vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 November 2023 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Colchester?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Colchester.
Where is Stockport County vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Colchester part of?
Stockport County vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 62% chance of winning, Colchester a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stockport County and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Colchester?
Record (2 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 0 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Colchester in?
Stockport County (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Colchester (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.18) and Colchester's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.80
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.00
0.97
Colchester xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
43.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.97 for Colchester, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Colchester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 34W 16D 13L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colchester's form line: 18W 15D 30L from 63 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Colchester.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.00 PPG from 31 outings (17W 11D 3L).
On the road, Colchester have gone 9W 4D 18L from 31 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Colchester in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 34W 16D 13L in their last 63 games (1.87 PPG), while Colchester have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Colchester away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Colchester away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Colchester in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stockport County have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Stockport County's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
0
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Colchester?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Colchester have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Colchester 1-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Colchester?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 42%, Colchester 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stockport County) and 45% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Colchester in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stockport County's recent matches and 45% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stockport County's recent games and 45% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Colchester tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Colchester in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Colchester 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.03 xG and Colchester 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Colchester landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against Colchester attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 62% | Draw 21% | Colchester 17%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 43%, Colchester 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Colchester's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Colchester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.