Stevenage 1-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Stevenage take on Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 4 as Stevenage welcome Port Vale to The Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port Vale — All Games: 0W 2D 1L from 3 League Two fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port Vale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.33 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.67). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Stevenage 33% | Port Vale 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 33% | Port Vale 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.92 xG and Port Vale 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.979 / defence 1.037 | Port Vale attack 0.737 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 0.810 / away 0.850. Data: 3 Stevenage games / 3 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 37% | Draw 42% | Port Vale 21%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.70 | Draw 2.38 | Port Vale 4.76. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Port Vale's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 21% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.57 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 33% | Port Vale 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 37% | Draw 42% | Port Vale 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 32% | xG Stevenage 0.92 / Port Vale 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.979 / def 1.037 | Port Vale attack 0.737 / def 1.163 | league avg home 0.810 / away 0.850 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Port Vale xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Port Vale kick off?
Stevenage vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Stevenage vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Port Vale part of?
Stevenage vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 37% chance of winning, Port Vale a 21% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Stevenage and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Port Vale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Port Vale in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L. Port Vale (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.98x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.5%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.71
42%
2.39
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.57
0.65
Port Vale xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.39
42%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.65 for Port Vale, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 1L across 3 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.00 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port Vale in 0%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Port Vale in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Stevenage or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Port Vale in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stevenage have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Stevenage's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Port Vale have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stevenage 33% BTTS, Port Vale 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Stevenage and 0% for Port Vale.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Port Vale in 67%; Port Vale in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stevenage's recent matches and 0% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 0% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stevenage and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Port Vale finished level at 1-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.92 xG and Port Vale 0.65 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Port Vale attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 37% | Draw 42% | Port Vale 21%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 33%, Port Vale 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port Vale scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.