Stevenage 1-0 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hartlepool make the trip to The Lamex Stadium to face Stevenage in League Two, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at The Lamex Stadium: 9W 0D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hartlepool's overall League Two record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hartlepool away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Stevenage. A 1.10 PPG lead over Hartlepool (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stevenage, 0 for Hartlepool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hartlepool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Hartlepool 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Hartlepool 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 2.06 xG and Hartlepool 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.225 / defence 0.854 | Hartlepool attack 0.972 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.041. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Stevenage games / 63 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 65% | Draw 20% | Hartlepool 15%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Hartlepool 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Hartlepool 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 65% | Draw 20% | Hartlepool 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 51% | xG Stevenage 2.06 / Hartlepool 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.225 / def 0.854 | Hartlepool attack 0.972 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Hartlepool xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Hartlepool kick off?
Stevenage vs Hartlepool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Hartlepool.
Where is Stevenage vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Hartlepool part of?
Stevenage vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 65% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stevenage and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Hartlepool?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Hartlepool 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Hartlepool in?
Stevenage (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Hartlepool (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.23x the league average against Hartlepool's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hartlepool's attack (0.97x) against Stevenage's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.89
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.93
0.86
Hartlepool xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
54.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.86 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Hartlepool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 17D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hartlepool sit at 1.05 PPG from 63 outings (16W 18D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Stevenage against 1.05 for Hartlepool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stevenage's home form reads 16W 6D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hartlepool have taken 0.71 points per game from 31 outings (5W 7D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 0.94 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 22W 17D 24L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 16W 18D 29L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Hartlepool away?
Stevenage's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.74 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hartlepool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
2
Draws
0
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Hartlepool have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Hartlepool 1-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Hartlepool?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Hartlepool 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Stevenage) and 52% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hartlepool in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 55% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Stevenage's recent games and 52% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Hartlepool 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Hartlepool 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 2.06 xG and Hartlepool 0.86 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hartlepool landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Hartlepool attack 0.97 / defence 1.36, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 65% | Draw 20% | Hartlepool 15%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Hartlepool 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Hartlepool's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.32 PPG, Hartlepool 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Hartlepool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.