Scunthorpe 1-2 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rochdale at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Scunthorpe vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 33 as Scunthorpe welcome Rochdale to Sands Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Scunthorpe — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Scunthorpe's home record at Sands Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rochdale away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Scunthorpe) versus 0.80 (Rochdale). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Scunthorpe, 0 for Rochdale and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Scunthorpe in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Scunthorpe 46% versus Rochdale 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 39% | Rochdale 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.92 xG and Rochdale 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.694 / defence 1.261 | Rochdale attack 0.785 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.101. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Scunthorpe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Scunthorpe games / 28 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 28% | Draw 35% | Rochdale 37%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Rochdale 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rochdale at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Scunthorpe 50% | Rochdale 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 28% | Draw 35% | Rochdale 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Scunthorpe 0.92 / Rochdale 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.694 / def 1.261 | Rochdale attack 0.785 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rochdale xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Rochdale kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Rochdale?
Scunthorpe 1 - 2 Rochdale.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Rochdale part of?
Scunthorpe vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 28% chance of winning, Rochdale a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Scunthorpe and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Rochdale?
Record (1 meetings): Scunthorpe 0W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Scunthorpe and Rochdale in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Rochdale (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Scunthorpe's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Rochdale's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Scunthorpe's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
28%
3.54
35%
2.90
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
2.01
1.09
Rochdale xG
3.54
28%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.09 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Scunthorpe have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 4W 8D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Rochdale's form line: 6W 13D 9L from 28 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Rochdale are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Scunthorpe.
Venue Form
On home soil, Scunthorpe have posted 0.93 PPG from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
On the road, Rochdale have gone 3W 6D 5L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rochdale in 61%.
Last 28 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Current Season
Rochdale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 4W 8D 16L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 6W 13D 9L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Rochdale away?
Rochdale's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 0.93 PPG; Rochdale away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Scunthorpe
1
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Rochdale?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 0, Rochdale have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Scunthorpe 1-2 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Scunthorpe and Rochdale?
Rochdale have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Rochdale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Scunthorpe 43%, Rochdale 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Scunthorpe) and 50% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe have failed to score in 43% of games; Rochdale in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 64% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 50% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Rochdale tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rochdale edge out Scunthorpe 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rochdale beat Scunthorpe 1-2 at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.92 xG and Rochdale 1.09 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rochdale outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.69 / defence 1.26 against Rochdale attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 31/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 28% | Draw 35% | Rochdale 37%, with Rochdale to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 39%, Rochdale 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Rochdale's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rochdale arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Rochdale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.