Salford City 0-0 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Sutton Utd at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Salford City — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 League Two matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sutton Utd have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Salford City have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.01 xG and Sutton Utd 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.005 / defence 1.188 | Sutton Utd attack 0.888 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 0.772 / away 0.754. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Salford City games / 1 Sutton Utd games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Salford City 40% | Draw 33% | Sutton Utd 28%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Sutton Utd 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sutton Utd's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 35% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 40% | Draw 33% | Sutton Utd 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Salford City 1.01 / Sutton Utd 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.005 / def 1.188 | Sutton Utd attack 0.888 / def 1.305 | league avg home 0.772 / away 0.754 • Poisson stance: Salford City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sutton Utd xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Salford City vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Salford City 0 - 0 Sutton Utd.
Where is Salford City vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Sutton Utd part of?
Salford City vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 40% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Salford City and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and Sutton Utd in?
Salford City (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Sutton Utd (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
40%
2.52
33%
3.07
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Salford City xG
Total xG
1.81
0.80
Sutton Utd xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Salford City and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Salford City and 0.80 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sutton Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sutton Utd in 100%.
Last 1 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Early Season
Sutton Utd
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Salford City
2
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Salford City 1-2 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Sutton Utd?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Salford City's games and 100% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Salford City's recent games and 100% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City and Sutton Utd finished level at 0-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.01 xG and Sutton Utd 0.80 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Sutton Utd attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 40% | Draw 33% | Sutton Utd 28%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 0%, Sutton Utd 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salford City managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sutton Utd managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.