Salford City 1-2 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Sutton Utd at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Salford City — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Sutton Utd have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 1.30 PPG versus Sutton Utd's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Salford City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Sutton Utd, with 2 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Salford City winning.
The historical record gives Salford City a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 62% versus Sutton Utd 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 56% | Sutton Utd 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.82 xG and Sutton Utd 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.139 / defence 1.362 | Sutton Utd attack 0.732 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.291. Data: 86 Salford City games / 86 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 49% | Draw 24% | Sutton Utd 27%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Sutton Utd 3.70. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 80% | Sutton Utd 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 49% | Draw 24% | Sutton Utd 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Salford City 1.82 / Sutton Utd 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.139 / def 1.362 | Sutton Utd attack 0.732 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Salford City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sutton Utd xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Salford City vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Salford City 1 - 2 Sutton Utd.
Where is Salford City vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Sutton Utd part of?
Salford City vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 49% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Salford City and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Sutton Utd?
Record (5 meetings): Salford City 3W | Draws 2 | Sutton Utd 0W.
What form are Salford City and Sutton Utd in?
Salford City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.15
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Salford City xG
Total xG
3.11
1.29
Sutton Utd xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Salford City and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Salford City and 1.29 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 86 games, going 34W 19D 33L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Sutton Utd sit at 1.06 PPG from 86 outings (22W 25D 39L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.41 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 15W 12D 16L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Sutton Utd have taken 0.77 points per game from 43 outings (7W 12D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.06 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Sutton Utd
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 34W 19D 33L in their last 86 games (1.41 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 22W 25D 39L in their last 86 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Sutton Utd away?
Salford City's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.33 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Salford City
2
Draws
1
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Sutton Utd have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Salford City 1-2 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Sutton Utd?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 60%, Sutton Utd 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Salford City) and 46% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Salford City have failed to score in 26% of games; Sutton Utd in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Salford City's games and 51% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Salford City's recent games and 46% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Salford City 1-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.82 xG and Sutton Utd 1.29 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.14 / defence 1.36 against Sutton Utd attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 49% | Draw 24% | Sutton Utd 27%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Sutton Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Sutton Utd 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.41 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.