Salford City 0-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Gillingham travel to Peninsula Stadium to take on Salford City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salford City have posted 6W 1D 3L at Peninsula Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Peninsula Stadium.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Salford City have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Salford City have won 2, Gillingham 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Salford City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Gillingham trading profile (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 54% versus Gillingham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 47% | Gillingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.64 xG and Gillingham 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.102 / defence 0.863 | Gillingham attack 0.799 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.172. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 88 Salford City games / 87 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 18%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Gillingham 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Gillingham lead the H2H ledger, but Salford City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 40% | Gillingham 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Salford City 1.64 / Gillingham 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.102 / def 0.863 | Gillingham attack 0.799 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Salford City (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Gillingham xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Gillingham kick off?
Salford City vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Gillingham?
Salford City 0 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Salford City vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Gillingham part of?
Salford City vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 57% chance of winning, Gillingham a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Salford City and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Gillingham?
Record (7 meetings): Salford City 2W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 4W.
What form are Salford City and Gillingham in?
Salford City (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Gillingham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.08
18%
5.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.45
0.81
Gillingham xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.45
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
4%
28.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Salford City and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Salford City and 0.81 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Gillingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 87 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 41W 19D 27L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 26W 29D 32L from 87 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.63 PPG, Gillingham on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salford City have posted 1.79 PPG from 43 outings (23W 8D 12L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 9W 17D 17L from 43 away games — 1.02 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.02 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 41W 19D 27L in their last 87 games (1.63 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 26W 29D 32L in their last 87 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Gillingham away?
Salford City's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.79 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.02 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2022, when Salford City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Salford City
2
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, Gillingham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Salford City 0-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 51%, Gillingham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Salford City) and 30% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Gillingham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Salford City's recent matches and 46% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Salford City's recent games and 30% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Gillingham tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City and Gillingham finished level at 0-0 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.64 xG and Gillingham 0.81 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Gillingham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Gillingham attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Gillingham 18%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Gillingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.63 PPG, Gillingham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.