Salford City 3-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salford City at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 3 as Salford City welcome Crewe to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Salford City — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Salford City have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salford City's home record at The Peninsula Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Salford City are significantly better at The Peninsula Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crewe have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crewe away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Salford City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Crewe in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 48% versus Crewe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 40% | Crewe 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.64 xG and Crewe 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.142 / defence 0.917 | Crewe attack 1.005 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 0.988. Data: 48 Salford City games / 2 Crewe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Salford City 54% | Draw 25% | Crewe 21%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Crewe 4.76. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Salford City 70% | Crewe 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 54% | Draw 25% | Crewe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Salford City 1.64 / Crewe 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.142 / def 0.917 | Crewe attack 1.005 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.323 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Salford City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Crewe xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Crewe kick off?
Salford City vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Crewe?
Salford City 3 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Salford City vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Crewe part of?
Salford City vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 54% chance of winning, Crewe a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salford City and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and Crewe in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Crewe (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.14x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.97
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.55
0.91
Crewe xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
4%
25.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Salford City and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Salford City and 0.91 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 14D 14L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Salford City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 0.73 PPG from 48 outings (9W 8D 31L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 11W 9D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 0.50 points per game from 24 outings (3W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Early Season
Crewe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Crewe in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 20W 14D 14L in their last 48 games (1.54 PPG), while Crewe have gone 9W 8D 31L in their last 48 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Crewe away?
Salford City's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.75 PPG; Crewe away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Salford City or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Crewe in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Salford City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 3, Crewe have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Salford City.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 50%, Crewe 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Salford City) and 46% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Crewe in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Salford City's recent matches and 54% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Salford City's recent games and 46% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Crewe tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Salford City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Crewe 3-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.64 xG and Crewe 0.91 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crewe landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Crewe attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 54% | Draw 25% | Crewe 21%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 40%, Crewe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crewe's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Crewe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.