Salford City 0-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Carlisle at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Carlisle have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Salford City are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Salford City have won 2, Carlisle 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Salford City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Carlisle in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 65% versus Carlisle 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 60% | Carlisle 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.66 xG and Carlisle 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.940 / defence 1.002 | Carlisle attack 0.707 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.254. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Salford City games / 14 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 55% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 20%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Carlisle 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 60% | Carlisle 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 55% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Salford City 1.66 / Carlisle 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.940 / def 1.002 | Carlisle attack 0.707 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Salford City (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Carlisle xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Carlisle kick off?
Salford City vs Carlisle kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Carlisle?
Salford City 0 - 1 Carlisle.
Where is Salford City vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Carlisle part of?
Salford City vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 55% chance of winning, Carlisle a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salford City and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Carlisle?
Record (4 meetings): Salford City 2W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 2W.
What form are Salford City and Carlisle in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Carlisle (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Salford City vs Carlisle?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Carlisle's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.09
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.54
0.89
Carlisle xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
26.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Salford City and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Salford City and 0.89 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Carlisle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 40L across 60 games — 0.63 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 9W 8D 13L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 5W 4D 21L across 30 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.88 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 9W 11D 40L in their last 60 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Carlisle away?
Salford City's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.17 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2022, when Carlisle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salford City
1
Draws
3
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, Carlisle have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Carlisle 2-2 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 73%, Carlisle 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Salford City and 50% for Carlisle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carlisle in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Carlisle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Salford City's games and 47% of Carlisle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Salford City's matches and 50% of Carlisle's.
Do Salford City and Carlisle tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Salford City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Salford City 0-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.66 xG and Carlisle 0.89 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salford City fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Carlisle attack 0.71 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 55% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 20%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 60%, Carlisle 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Carlisle's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.