Salford City 1-2 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 44 as Salford City welcome Bradford to The Peninsula Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Salford City are significantly better at The Peninsula Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bradford away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bradford — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Salford City, 3 for Bradford and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 56% | Bradford 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.46 xG and Bradford 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.108 / defence 1.376 | Bradford attack 0.940 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.290. Data: 89 Salford City games / 88 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 24% | Bradford 43%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Bradford 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 80% | Bradford 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 24% | Bradford 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Salford City 1.46 / Bradford 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.108 / def 1.376 | Bradford attack 0.940 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Bradford (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Bradford xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Bradford kick off?
Salford City vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Bradford?
Salford City 1 - 2 Bradford.
Where is Salford City vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Bradford part of?
Salford City vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 34% chance of winning, Bradford a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Salford City and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Bradford?
Record (5 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 1 | Bradford 3W.
What form are Salford City and Bradford in?
Salford City (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Bradford (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
34%
2.96
24%
4.24
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Salford City xG
Total xG
3.13
1.67
Bradford xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Salford City and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Salford City and 1.67 for Bradford, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 90 games, going 34W 20D 36L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.51 PPG from 90 outings (36W 28D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.36 PPG, Bradford on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 15W 12D 17L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.45 points per game from 44 outings (18W 10D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.26 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bradford in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Bradford in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 34W 20D 36L in their last 90 games (1.36 PPG), while Bradford have gone 36W 28D 26L in their last 90 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.30 PPG; Bradford away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Salford City or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bradford in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Salford City
2
Draws
5
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Bradford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Salford City 1-2 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 61%, Bradford 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Salford City) and 48% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 36%; Bradford in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Salford City's recent matches and 43% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Salford City's recent games and 48% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Bradford tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Bradford in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Salford City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Salford City 1-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.46 xG and Bradford 1.67 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.11 / defence 1.38 against Bradford attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 34% | Draw 24% | Bradford 43%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Bradford 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.36 PPG, Bradford 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.