Notts County 3-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League Two, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Notts County (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Meadow Lane, Notts County have gone 7W 0D 2L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Notts County are significantly better at Meadow Lane than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Notts County, 1.30 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Notts County have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Crawley Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Notts County — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Notts County 74% and Crawley Town 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Notts County 68% | Crawley Town 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 2.53 xG and Crawley Town 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.295 / defence 1.393 | Crawley Town attack 0.879 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.261. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 2.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Notts County games / 64 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 59% | Draw 18% | Crawley Town 22%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.69 | Draw 5.56 | Crawley Town 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.53 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 78% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 59% | Draw 18% | Crawley Town 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG Notts County 2.53 / Crawley Town 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.295 / def 1.393 | Crawley Town attack 0.879 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Notts County (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Crawley Town xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Crawley Town kick off?
Notts County vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Notts County 3 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Notts County vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Crawley Town part of?
Notts County vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 59% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 22% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Notts County and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Crawley Town in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.29) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.88x) against Notts County's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 19/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.5%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
59%
1.69
18%
5.41
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
Notts County xG
Total xG
4.07
1.54
Crawley Town xG
1.69
59%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
8%
12.54
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
2%
55.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Notts County and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Notts County and 1.54 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 10W 3D 6L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 8W 3D 8L from 19 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Notts County against 1.42 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Notts County have posted 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (7W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Notts County are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crawley Town's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.58 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Crawley Town in 63%.
Last 19 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Crawley Town away?
Notts County's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 2.33 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Notts County have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 4-0 on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Crawley Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Crawley Town 1-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Crawley Town?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Notts County, 67% for Crawley Town — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for Notts County and 56% for Crawley Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Notts County's games and 67% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of Notts County's matches and 56% of Crawley Town's.
Do Notts County and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Crawley Town 3-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.53 xG and Crawley Town 1.54 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.29 / defence 1.39 against Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 19/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 59% | Draw 18% | Crawley Town 22%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 68%, Crawley Town 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.74 PPG, Crawley Town 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Notts County win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.