Newport County 1-3 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Newport County at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Notts County encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 33 as Newport County welcome Notts County to Rodney Parade. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Newport County stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Newport County at Rodney Parade this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Notts County — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Notts County have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Newport County are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Newport County, 1 for Notts County and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Notts County winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Newport County trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Notts County trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newport County 60% and Notts County 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Newport County 63% | Notts County 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 2.37 xG and Notts County 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.084 / defence 0.967 | Notts County attack 1.114 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Notts County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing Newport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 Newport County games / 30 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Newport County 58% | Draw 20% | Notts County 22%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Notts County 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Newport County (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 80% | Notts County 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights