Mansfield Town 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Stevenage meet at One Call Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 44. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Mansfield Town 2W, Stevenage 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 57% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 51% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.32 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.145 / defence 1.177 | Stevenage attack 0.876 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.033. Data: 88 Mansfield Town games / 88 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Stevenage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mansfield Town 70% | Stevenage 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Mansfield Town 1.32 / Stevenage 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.145 / def 1.177 | Stevenage attack 0.876 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Stevenage xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Mansfield Town 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage part of?
Mansfield Town vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 41% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mansfield Town and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Mansfield Town 2W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.88x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
41%
2.45
31%
3.23
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.39
1.06
Stevenage xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.06 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 41W 22D 25L from 88 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 32W 27D 29L across 88 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.40 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 22W 12D 9L from 43 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 7W 19D 17L across 43 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.16 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 41W 22D 25L in their last 88 games (1.65 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 32W 27D 29L in their last 88 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Stevenage away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.81 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stevenage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
4
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Stevenage have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Stevenage?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 63%, Stevenage 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mansfield Town) and 37% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stevenage in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Stevenage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mansfield Town's games and 49% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 37% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Stevenage tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Stevenage 1-0 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.32 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 41% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 28%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 51%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.65 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.