Harrogate Town 0-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Harrogate Town host Swindon Town at Exercise Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 3 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Harrogate Town — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Harrogate Town's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 games at Exercise Stadium this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League Two this season, Swindon Town have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swindon Town — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Harrogate Town have won 2, Swindon Town 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Swindon Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Harrogate Town trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Swindon Town trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 43% versus Swindon Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 39% | Swindon Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 0.69 xG and Swindon Town 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.574 / defence 1.461 | Swindon Town attack 1.105 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.229. Harrogate Town's attack strength of 0.574 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Harrogate Town games / 74 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 8.33 | Draw 5.00 | Swindon Town 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Harrogate Town 20% | Swindon Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 43% | xG Harrogate Town 0.69 / Swindon Town 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 0.574 / def 1.461 | Swindon Town attack 1.105 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Swindon Town xG
43%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Harrogate Town 0 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town part of?
Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 12% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 68% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Harrogate Town and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Swindon Town?
Record (9 meetings): Harrogate Town 2W | Draws 4 | Swindon Town 3W.
What form are Harrogate Town and Swindon Town in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Harrogate Town's attack at 0.57x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Harrogate Town's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
12%
8.28
20%
4.97
68%
1.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.68
1.98
Swindon Town xG
8.28
12%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.47
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
14%
7.27
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
2%
60.20
34%
2.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.98 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Harrogate Town have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 18W 17D 39L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Swindon Town's form line: 30W 21D 23L from 74 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Swindon Town are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Harrogate Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Harrogate Town have posted 1.14 PPG from 36 outings (12W 5D 19L).
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 13W 9D 14L from 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Harrogate Town are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.58 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 18W 17D 39L in their last 74 games (0.96 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 30W 21D 23L in their last 74 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Swindon Town away?
Swindon Town's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.14 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Swindon Town go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2022, when Swindon Town won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Harrogate Town's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Harrogate Town
4
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Swindon Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 2, Swindon Town have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Harrogate Town 0-1 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 42%, Swindon Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Harrogate Town) and 58% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play Swindon Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 58% of Swindon Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 58% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swindon Town edge out Harrogate Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 0.69 xG and Swindon Town 1.98 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swindon Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 0.57 / defence 1.46 against Swindon Town attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 20% | Swindon Town 68%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 39%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swindon Town's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.