Harrogate Town 1-0 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Swindon Town at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Swindon Town encounter.

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Match Analysis

Harrogate Town host Swindon Town at Exercise Stadium in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Harrogate Town — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Harrogate Town's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Swindon Town stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Swindon Town have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Swindon Town — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Harrogate Town have won 1, Swindon Town 2, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Harrogate Town 0–0 Swindon Town — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Harrogate Town trading profile (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Swindon Town trading profile (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 49% versus Swindon Town 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 46% | Swindon Town 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.17 xG and Swindon Town 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.759 / defence 1.132 | Swindon Town attack 1.201 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.120. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Swindon Town have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 77 games and Swindon Town's last 77.

Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 28% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 45%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.51 | Draw 3.76 | Swindon Town 2.23. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 30% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 70% (last 10 away games).

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