Gillingham 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 5 as Gillingham welcome Walsall to MEMS Priestfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at MEMS Priestfield Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MEMS Priestfield Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Walsall have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Walsall have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Walsall away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Walsall's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 42% versus Walsall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 32% | Walsall 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.85 xG and Walsall 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.678 / defence 1.157 | Walsall attack 0.907 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.976. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Gillingham games / 50 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 30% | Draw 32% | Walsall 39%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Walsall 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 10% | Walsall 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: MEMS Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 30% | Draw 32% | Walsall 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Gillingham 0.85 / Walsall 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.678 / def 1.157 | Walsall attack 0.907 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Walsall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Walsall xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Walsall kick off?
Gillingham vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Gillingham 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Gillingham vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at MEMS Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Walsall part of?
Gillingham vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 30% chance of winning, Walsall a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Gillingham and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Walsall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gillingham and Walsall in?
Gillingham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Walsall (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.68x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
30%
3.39
32%
3.14
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Gillingham xG
Total xG
1.88
1.02
Walsall xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.02 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Gillingham have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 9W 16D 25L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Walsall's form line: 16W 13D 21L from 50 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Walsall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 0.86 PPG, Walsall on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 5W 7D 13L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Early Season
Walsall
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Walsall in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 9W 16D 25L in their last 50 games (0.86 PPG), while Walsall have gone 16W 13D 21L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Walsall away?
Gillingham's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 0.92 PPG; Walsall away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Oct 2023, when Walsall won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gillingham's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Gillingham
5
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Walsall?
From 8 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 1, Walsall have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Walsall 2-2 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 32%, Walsall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Gillingham and 32% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 52% of games; Walsall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Gillingham's recent matches and 44% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Gillingham's recent games and 32% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Walsall tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Walsall in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gillingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MEMS Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Gillingham and Walsall drew 0-0 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.85 xG and Walsall 1.02 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gillingham fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.68 / defence 1.16 against Walsall attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 30% | Draw 32% | Walsall 39%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 32%, Walsall 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 0.86 PPG, Walsall 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.