Crawley Town 2-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Tranmere fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 42 as Crawley Town welcome Tranmere to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 3W 4D 3L at Broadfield Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Tranmere have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Tranmere have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 1.20 PPG, Tranmere 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Tranmere, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Crawley Town.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Tranmere winning.
It is worth noting that Tranmere have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Tranmere trading profile (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 59% versus Tranmere 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crawley Town 54% | Tranmere 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.49 xG and Tranmere 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.116 / defence 1.166 | Tranmere attack 0.772 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.058. Data: 87 Crawley Town games / 87 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 23%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Tranmere 4.35. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 70% | Tranmere 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 48% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.49 / Tranmere 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.116 / def 1.166 | Tranmere attack 0.772 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Tranmere xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Tranmere kick off?
Crawley Town vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Crawley Town 2 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Crawley Town vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Tranmere part of?
Crawley Town vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 48% chance of winning, Tranmere a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Tranmere 3W.
What form are Crawley Town and Tranmere in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Tranmere (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.12x the league average against Tranmere's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tranmere's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.42
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.44
0.95
Tranmere xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.95 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 87 games, going 26W 21D 40L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Tranmere sit at 1.47 PPG from 87 outings (35W 23D 29L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.14 PPG, Tranmere on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 17W 11D 15L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Tranmere have taken 1.02 points per game from 43 outings (10W 14D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.06 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Tranmere in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Tranmere
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 26W 21D 40L in their last 87 games (1.14 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 35W 23D 29L in their last 87 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Tranmere away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.44 PPG; Tranmere away: 1.02 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Tranmere in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tranmere have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Tranmere specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Tranmere have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Tranmere 2-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Tranmere?
Tranmere have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Tranmere 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 19% (Tranmere).
On the defensive side: Tranmere in 33%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Tranmere in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 35% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 19% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Tranmere tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Tranmere 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Tranmere 2-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.49 xG and Tranmere 0.95 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against Tranmere attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 48% | Draw 29% | Tranmere 23%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Tranmere 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Tranmere's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.14 PPG, Tranmere 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Tranmere (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.