Crawley Town 3-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Swindon Town at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 5W 0D 5L at Broadfield Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swindon Town stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.20 PPG versus Swindon Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 2, Swindon Town 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–6 with Swindon Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Swindon Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Swindon Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 2.30 xG and Swindon Town 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.114 / defence 1.176 | Swindon Town attack 1.033 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.297. Swindon Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Crawley Town games / 71 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 21% | Swindon Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Swindon Town 3.85. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 54% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Swindon Town 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 21% | Swindon Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Crawley Town 2.30 / Swindon Town 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.114 / def 1.176 | Swindon Town attack 1.033 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Swindon Town xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Swindon Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 1 January 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Crawley Town 3 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Swindon Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 54% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Crawley Town and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Swindon Town?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 1 | Swindon Town 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Swindon Town in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crawley Town's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Swindon Town's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
54%
1.86
21%
4.86
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.88
1.57
Swindon Town xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
10%
10.01
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
3%
38.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.57 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 21W 16D 33L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swindon Town's form line: 25W 19D 26L from 70 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.13 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.57 PPG from 35 outings (16W 7D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 9W 12D 14L from 35 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.53 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 70 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 21W 16D 33L in their last 70 games (1.13 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 25W 19D 26L in their last 70 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Swindon Town away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.57 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Swindon Town won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
2
Draws
3
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Swindon Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Swindon Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Crawley Town 2-2 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Swindon Town 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Crawley Town) and 57% (Swindon Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Swindon Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Crawley Town's games and 69% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Crawley Town's matches and 57% of Swindon Town's.
Do Crawley Town and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Swindon Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Swindon Town 3-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 2.30 xG and Swindon Town 1.57 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.18 against Swindon Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.36, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 54% | Draw 21% | Swindon Town 26%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Swindon Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.13 PPG, Swindon Town 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.