Cheltenham 3-2 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cheltenham face Carlisle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Carlisle travel to EV Charger Points Stadium to take on Cheltenham in League Two (matchday 45). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cheltenham have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
In front of their own supporters, Cheltenham have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carlisle — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Carlisle have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Carlisle 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cheltenham have won 2, Carlisle 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Cheltenham 1–0 Carlisle — a Cheltenham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cheltenham trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Carlisle trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 53% versus Carlisle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 48% | Carlisle 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.17 xG and Carlisle 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.869 / defence 1.174 | Carlisle attack 0.737 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.142. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 44 games and Carlisle's last 44.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 39% | Draw 31% | Carlisle 30%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Carlisle 3.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cheltenham as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 60% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 39% | Draw 31% | Carlisle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Cheltenham 1.17 / Carlisle 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.869 / def 1.174 | Carlisle attack 0.737 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Carlisle xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Carlisle kick off?
Cheltenham vs Carlisle kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Cheltenham 3 - 2 Carlisle.
Where is Cheltenham vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Carlisle part of?
Cheltenham vs Carlisle is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 39% chance of winning, Carlisle a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cheltenham and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Cheltenham vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.87) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 44 games and Carlisle's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.23
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.16
0.99
Carlisle xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.99 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 27W 20D 43L from 90 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 53L across 90 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.12 PPG, Carlisle on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 16W 10D 19L from their last 45 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 9W 7D 29L across their last 45 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.90 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
Cheltenham (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Cheltenham vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 27W 20D 43L in their last 90 games (1.12 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 17W 20D 53L in their last 90 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Carlisle away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.29 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cheltenham have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cheltenham
0
Draws
1
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Carlisle?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 3, Carlisle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Cheltenham 3-2 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Carlisle?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 53%, Carlisle 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cheltenham) and 44% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 27% of games; Carlisle in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 44% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cheltenham's recent games and 44% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 71% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cheltenham edge out Carlisle 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Carlisle 3-2 at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.17 xG and Carlisle 0.99 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cheltenham beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carlisle outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Carlisle attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 39% | Draw 31% | Carlisle 30%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Carlisle 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Carlisle's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.12 PPG, Carlisle 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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