Cheltenham 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cheltenham host Bradford at EV Charger Points Stadium in League Two (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Cheltenham — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Cheltenham have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bradford stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Bradford have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bradford — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bradford in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 53% versus Bradford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 50% | Bradford 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.17 xG and Bradford 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.870 / defence 1.253 | Bradford attack 1.002 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.245. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bradford's projected output up. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 12 games and Bradford's last 58.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 29% | Draw 25% | Bradford 46%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.51 | Draw 3.99 | Bradford 2.15. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cheltenham's last 10 home games and Bradford's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 50% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, matchday 13 | Venue: EV Charger Points Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 29% | Draw 25% | Bradford 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Cheltenham 1.17 / Bradford 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.870 / def 1.253 | Bradford attack 1.002 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Bradford (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bradford xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Bradford kick off?
Cheltenham vs Bradford kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Bradford?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Cheltenham vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at EV Charger Points Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Bradford part of?
Cheltenham vs Bradford is a League Two fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 29% chance of winning, Bradford a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cheltenham and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cheltenham vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 12 games and Bradford's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
29%
3.51
25%
3.99
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.73
1.56
Bradford xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.56 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 16W 9D 33L from 58 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 18L across 58 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bradford by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cheltenham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 10W 4D 15L from their last 29 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 12W 5D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Bradford
Blended
Cheltenham (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Cheltenham vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Bradford in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 16W 9D 33L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Bradford have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.17 PPG; Bradford away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bradford in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
1
Draws
1
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Bradford?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 0, Bradford have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2025: Bradford 3-0 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 48%, Bradford 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cheltenham) and 59% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 59% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cheltenham's recent games and 59% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 83% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at EV Charger Points Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Cheltenham and Bradford drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.17 xG and Bradford 1.56 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Bradford attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 12/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 29% | Draw 25% | Bradford 46%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 50%, Bradford 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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