Carlisle 1-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Walsall at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 19 as Carlisle welcome Walsall to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Carlisle have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 1W 5D 3L at Brunton Park — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.89 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Carlisle are significantly better at Brunton Park than their overall form suggests.
Walsall — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Walsall have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Walsall's 1.60 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Carlisle's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Carlisle in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 44% versus Walsall 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 56% | Walsall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.52 xG and Walsall 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.555 / defence 1.076 | Walsall attack 0.845 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.199. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.555 is below the league average — the 0.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Carlisle games / 18 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 15% | Draw 38% | Walsall 47%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 6.67 | Draw 2.63 | Walsall 2.13. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (38%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Carlisle's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 33% | Walsall 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 15% | Draw 38% | Walsall 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 29% | xG Carlisle 0.52 / Walsall 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.555 / def 1.076 | Walsall attack 0.845 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Walsall (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.52
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Walsall xG
29%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Walsall kick off?
Carlisle vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Walsall?
Carlisle 1 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Carlisle vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Walsall part of?
Carlisle vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 15% chance of winning, Walsall a 47% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Carlisle and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Walsall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carlisle and Walsall in?
Carlisle (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Walsall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 0.56x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (20.3%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
15%
6.62
38%
2.64
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.52
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.61
1.09
Walsall xG
6.62
15%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
59%
1.68
Win to Nil
5%
19.66
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 21.8 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 0.52 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.09 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 7D 9L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Walsall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Carlisle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Carlisle's home form reads 1W 5D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 61%.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Walsall in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 2W 7D 9L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Walsall have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Walsall away?
Walsall's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 0.89 PPG; Walsall away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Carlisle's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Carlisle
3
Draws
2
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Walsall?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, Walsall have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Carlisle 1-1 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 33%, Walsall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Carlisle and 33% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Walsall in 33%; Carlisle have failed to score in 67% of games; Walsall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carlisle's recent matches and 44% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Carlisle's recent games and 33% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Walsall tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Walsall in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Walsall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Walsall 1-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.52 xG and Walsall 1.09 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Walsall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.56 / defence 1.08 against Walsall attack 0.84 / defence 0.88, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 15% | Draw 38% | Walsall 47%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 56%, Walsall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Walsall's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Carlisle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.