Carlisle 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Carlisle at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carlisle host Stevenage at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 6W 2D 2L at Brunton Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brunton Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stevenage — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Carlisle have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Carlisle have won 2, Stevenage 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 44% versus Stevenage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 48% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.57 xG and Stevenage 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.199 / defence 0.939 | Stevenage attack 0.920 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.065. Data: 81 Carlisle games / 81 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 52% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 21%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 4.76. Carlisle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 30% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 52% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Carlisle 1.57 / Stevenage 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.199 / def 0.939 | Stevenage attack 0.920 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Stevenage xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Stevenage kick off?
Carlisle vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Carlisle 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Carlisle vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Stevenage part of?
Carlisle vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 52% chance of winning, Stevenage a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Carlisle and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Carlisle 2W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Stevenage in?
Carlisle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Carlisle's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.75
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.49
0.92
Stevenage xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
22.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.92 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carlisle come into this having played 81 games, going 32W 21D 28L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.40 PPG from 81 outings (30W 23D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.44 PPG, Stevenage on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carlisle's home form reads 18W 11D 11L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.92 points per game from 40 outings (7W 16D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carlisle are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.17 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 32W 21D 28L in their last 81 games (1.44 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 23D 28L in their last 81 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Stevenage away?
Carlisle's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.62 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stevenage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carlisle and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Carlisle's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Carlisle
3
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 2, Stevenage have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 23 March 2024, when Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Stevenage?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 38%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Carlisle) and 40% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 32% of games; Stevenage in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Carlisle's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Carlisle's recent games and 40% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Stevenage tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carlisle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Stevenage finished level at 0-0 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.57 xG and Stevenage 0.92 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carlisle fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.20 / defence 0.94 against Stevenage attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 52% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 21%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 48%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.44 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.