Bradford 1-3 Northampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Northampton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
University of Bradford Stadium plays host to Bradford versus Northampton in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bradford have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at University of Bradford Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Northampton (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Bradford, 1.80 for Northampton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bradford 0W, Northampton 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 56% versus Northampton 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Northampton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 0.98 xG and Northampton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.963 / defence 0.906 | Northampton attack 1.342 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.040. Northampton have an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Bradford games / 64 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 28% | Draw 29% | Northampton 43%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Northampton 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 40% | Northampton 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 28% | Draw 29% | Northampton 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Bradford 0.98 / Northampton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.963 / def 0.906 | Northampton attack 1.342 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Northampton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Northampton xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Northampton kick off?
Bradford vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Northampton?
Bradford 1 - 3 Northampton.
Where is Bradford vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Northampton part of?
Bradford vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 28% chance of winning, Northampton a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bradford and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Northampton?
Record (2 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 2 | Northampton 0W.
What form are Bradford and Northampton in?
Bradford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Northampton (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bradford's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (1.34x) against Bradford's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.44
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.24
1.27
Northampton xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.4 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bradford and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Bradford and 1.27 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 22D 19L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton's form line: 31W 16D 17L from 64 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Bradford against 1.70 for Northampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (9W 15D 8L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 14W 9D 9L from 32 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.41 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Northampton in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Northampton in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 23W 22D 19L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while Northampton have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Northampton away?
Northampton's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.31 PPG; Northampton away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Bradford or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Northampton in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bradford have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Northampton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Northampton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Northampton?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 66%, Northampton 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bradford) and 47% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 34%; Northampton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Northampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Bradford's games and 53% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bradford's recent games and 47% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Northampton tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Northampton in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Bradford 1-3 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 0.98 xG and Northampton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Northampton outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Northampton attack 1.34 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 28% | Draw 29% | Northampton 43%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Northampton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.42 PPG, Northampton 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.