Bradford 1-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bradford welcome Accrington ST to University of Bradford Stadium in League Two (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bradford have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Bradford have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Accrington ST away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bradford have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Bradford's games and 70% of Accrington ST's (from Bradford's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bradford, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Bradford 3–0 Accrington ST — a Bradford win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Accrington ST trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 57% versus Accrington ST 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 50% | Accrington ST 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.82 xG and Accrington ST 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.164 / defence 0.718 | Accrington ST attack 1.110 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.153. Bradford have a tight defence (rating 0.718), which is pulling Accrington ST's projected output down. Data: built from Bradford's last 75 games and Accrington ST's last 74.
Result probabilities: Bradford 58% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 18%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.73 | Draw 4.11 | Accrington ST 5.59. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bradford's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bradford 60% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 17 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 58% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Bradford 1.82 / Accrington ST 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.164 / def 0.718 | Accrington ST attack 1.110 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Bradford (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Accrington ST xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Accrington ST kick off?
Bradford vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 11 February 2025 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Accrington ST?
Bradford 1 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Bradford vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Accrington ST part of?
Bradford vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 58% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bradford and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bradford vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bradford's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 75 games and Accrington ST's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.11
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.74
0.92
Accrington ST xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
3%
34.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bradford and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Bradford and 0.92 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bradford come into this having played 74 games, going 33W 20D 21L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.18 PPG from 74 outings (23W 18D 33L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bradford's home form reads 19W 11D 7L across their last 37 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 37 away games (10W 6D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.31 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Bradford (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Bradford vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 33W 20D 21L in their last 74 games (1.61 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 23W 18D 33L in their last 74 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Accrington ST away?
Bradford's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.84 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Bradford or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Bradford won Accrington ST 0-3 Bradford.
Bradford's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bradford
1
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Accrington ST?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 3, Accrington ST have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bradford and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Accrington ST 0-0 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Accrington ST?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 54%, Accrington ST 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bradford) and 68% (Accrington ST). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Accrington ST matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Bradford's games and 70% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Bradford's matches and 68% of Accrington ST's.
Do Bradford and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bradford's recent matches and 76% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Accrington ST 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Accrington ST 1-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.82 xG and Accrington ST 0.92 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bradford fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Accrington ST attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 75/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 58% | Draw 24% | Accrington ST 18%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Accrington ST 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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