AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Bradford meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season.
Bradford's overall League Two record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward AFC Wimbledon. A 0.60 PPG lead over Bradford (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AFC Wimbledon have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bradford in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 53% versus Bradford 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 45% | Bradford 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.37 xG and Bradford 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.034 / defence 1.094 | Bradford attack 0.999 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.267. Data: 58 AFC Wimbledon games / 58 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 26% | Bradford 37%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Bradford 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AFC Wimbledon (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 80% | Bradford 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 26% | Bradford 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.37 / Bradford 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.034 / def 1.094 | Bradford attack 0.999 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Bradford (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Bradford xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 October 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 36% chance of winning, Bradford a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 2 | Bradford 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Bradford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bradford's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (1.00x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
36%
2.75
26%
3.77
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.75
1.38
Bradford xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.38 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 21D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.62 PPG from 58 outings (25W 19D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 8W 10D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.57 points per game from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.28 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 16W 21D 21L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Bradford have gone 25W 19D 14L in their last 58 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.21 PPG; Bradford away: 1.57 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bradford in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
4
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Bradford have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 57%, Bradford 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AFC Wimbledon) and 46% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 39%; Bradford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 43% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 46% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Bradford tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bradford in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.37 xG and Bradford 1.38 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Bradford attack 1.00 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 26% | Bradford 37%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 45%, Bradford 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.