AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Barrow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Barrow meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League Two record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1W 6D 3L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Barrow have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Barrow have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Barrow away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Barrow are 0.50 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon in recent League Two fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
AFC Wimbledon half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Barrow half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 57% versus Barrow 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 45% | Barrow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG and Barrow 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.000 / defence 1.202 | Barrow attack 1.038 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.974. Data: 5 AFC Wimbledon games / 51 Barrow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 41% | Draw 26% | Barrow 33%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Barrow 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Barrow (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 70% | Barrow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 41% | Draw 26% | Barrow 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.38 / Barrow 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.000 / def 1.202 | Barrow attack 1.038 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Barrow xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Barrow.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 41% chance of winning, Barrow a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Barrow will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Barrow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Barrow in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Barrow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (1.00) and Barrow's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Barrow's attack (1.04x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 5/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.81
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.60
1.22
Barrow xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Barrow expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.22 for Barrow, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 8W 21D 22L from 51 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Barrow, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 23L across 51 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Barrow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.10 for Barrow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 3W 15D 7L from 25 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Barrow's away record stands at 6W 5D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Barrow are on 1.04 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
Barrow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Barrow in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 8W 21D 22L in their last 51 games (0.88 PPG), while Barrow have gone 14W 14D 23L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Barrow away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.96 PPG; Barrow away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Barrow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
2
Barrow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Barrow?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Barrow have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Barrow last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 2-2 Barrow.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Barrow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 64%, Barrow 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AFC Wimbledon) and 40% (Barrow).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 32% of games; Barrow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Barrow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Barrow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 40% of Barrow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Barrow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 40% of Barrow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Barrow defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barrow beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.38 xG and Barrow 1.22 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Barrow attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 5/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 41% | Draw 26% | Barrow 33%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Barrow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 45%, Barrow 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barrow's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 0.88 PPG, Barrow 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barrow win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Barrow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.