Accrington ST 2-2 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Swindon Town.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Swindon Town travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Accrington ST at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Swindon Town — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Swindon Town have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Accrington ST 1.40 PPG, Swindon Town 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Accrington ST's games and 80% of Swindon Town's (from Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Swindon Town and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2024, ended Accrington ST 2–1 Swindon Town — a Accrington ST win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Swindon Town in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Accrington ST 60% and Swindon Town 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Accrington ST 63% | Swindon Town 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.54 xG and Swindon Town 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.987 / defence 0.928 | Swindon Town attack 0.981 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.251. Swindon Town's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Accrington ST's projected output up. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 60 games and Swindon Town's last 61.

Result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 25% | Swindon Town 28%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.15 | Draw 3.95 | Swindon Town 3.56. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 60% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights