Accrington ST 1-2 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gillingham travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Accrington ST at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Accrington ST are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gillingham have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.30 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Accrington ST have won 0, Gillingham 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Accrington ST 0–1 Gillingham — a Gillingham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gillingham in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 46% versus Gillingham 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Accrington ST 51% | Gillingham 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.29 xG and Gillingham 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.976 / defence 0.947 | Gillingham attack 0.657 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.315. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 26 games and Gillingham's last 71.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 24%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.11 | Draw 3.43 | Gillingham 4.26. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 50% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, matchday 28 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 47% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Accrington ST 1.29 / Gillingham 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.976 / def 0.947 | Gillingham attack 0.657 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Gillingham xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Gillingham FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Gillingham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Accrington ST 1 - 2 Gillingham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Gillingham part of?
Accrington ST vs Gillingham is a League Two fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 47% chance of winning, Gillingham a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Accrington ST and Gillingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Accrington ST vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 26 games and Gillingham's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.43
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.10
0.82
Gillingham xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Gillingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.82 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Accrington ST come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 15D 34L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.31 PPG from 71 outings (26W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.14 PPG, Gillingham on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Accrington ST's home form reads 14W 5D 16L across their last 35 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Gillingham have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 35 away games (8W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.80 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
Accrington ST (Home) vs Gillingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Blended
Gillingham
Blended
❓ Accrington ST vs Gillingham Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 26W 15D 30L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Gillingham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.34 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gillingham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Accrington ST's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Gillingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 2, Gillingham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Gillingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Accrington ST 3-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 46%, Gillingham 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 26% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 37%; Accrington ST have failed to score in 31% of games; Gillingham in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Gillingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Gillingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 29% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Gillingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 26% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Gillingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 66% of Gillingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Accrington ST 1-2 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.29 xG and Gillingham 0.82 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gillingham outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Gillingham attack 0.66 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 47% | Draw 29% | Gillingham 24%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Gillingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Gillingham 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.14 PPG, Gillingham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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